Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and
Food Security in East Asia
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the definition of food security is a “situation that exists when all people, at all times have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” (Pinstrup-Anderson, 2009). Estimates by the FAO in 2010 proclaim that there are 925 million people in developing nations that do not have adequate nourishment and more than half of these people live in Asia. (FAO, 2011) For the past forty years East Asian countries have experienced rapid economic growth due to industrialization and urbanization, which has decreased the amount of available farmlands. Due to vast technological advancements, agricultural production has exponentially increased on fewer acres of land. This has led to increased regional food security and alleviation of poverty while at the same time causing significant environmental degradation. Rapid agricultural industrialization has created a paradoxical situation for the region that will take innovative solutions to overcome.
The Chinese government has predicted that by 2030 China will not be able to feed it’s own population. (Shobert, 2011) Currently China is ranked number one in agricultural output in the world. If predictions are accurate food shortages can be expected worldwide. One might speculate that rising populations, declining water supply and loss of arable land are the main causes of food insecurity in Asia but there is another significant player that trumps all others. Climate change impacts will become increasingly more severe over time and span anywhere from higher temperatures to stronger storms to increased risk of drought to a loss of biodiversity. Evidence of climate change is already being experienced in East Asia where there have been devastating crop failures due to periods of extreme weather. For example, in 2006 China experienced the worst drought in fifty years causing an estimated economic loss of 10 billion yuan due to 400,000 ha of destroyed cropland. (Xunhua, 2006) East Asia is a region dependent on agricultural production placing it in an extremely vulnerable position as climate change intensifies.
For thousands of years, agriculture has been the backbone of Asia. Today, 43% of all crop production, which includes 90% of all rice production, occurs within the region. (ADB, 2009) Rice was first cultivated in South Asia around 15,000 years ago according to FAO, which predates the invention of the wheel. (FAO, 2011) Until around the 1960s, agricultural production mostly consisted of small-scale low-impact farming but to meet the demands of increasing hunger due to population growth there was a huge shift in agricultural practices. With the advent of new technologies low-impact sustainable farming shifted to industrialized high output farming, which was known as the “green revolution”. In China, for example, grain production almost quadrupled to meet the needs of a growing population that nearly doubled from 1961 to 2004. (Xiong et al., 2008)
The use of new technology amplified consumption of fossil fuels as well as the amount of nitrogen fertilizers and pesticides used. For example, in 2007 China used more than 50 million tonnes of chemical fertilizers leading to extreme contamination of streams, lakes and ground water resources. (Greenpeace, 2011) This also increased greenhouse gas emissions such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide contributing to global warming. Industrialized agriculture is proving to be only a short-term solution to growing food insecurity and will not be a viable option in the face of climate change.
Detrimental impacts are predicted for the agricultural sector and for food security in Asia as climate change intensifies. As explained by Schmidhuber & Tubiello, food production is directly adversely affected through changes in “agro-ecological conditions” and indirectly by affecting growth and distribution of incomes and thus increasing the demand for agricultural produce. (2007) With an increase in mean temperature East Asian countries are particularly vulnerable because temperatures are already higher than what is normally suitable for crop production in the region. (Xiong, et al., 2008) Due to extreme climate diversity within the region predicting future climate change is exceptionally challenging.
The climate of East Asia ranges from subarctic in northeastern China to the desert in central China to tropical wet in southeastern countries. This helps to explain the range of crops produced throughout the region. For example in China, to the humid subtropical south the main crop is rice paddy while in semiarid central china wheat is the main staple crop and in the highlands of the north corn and soybeans are grown. The main climatic variables influencing these types of crops include temperature, radiation, rainfall, soil moisture, and CO2 concentrations. (Zhai et al., 2009). With the effects of climate change rice production in the south is predicted to decrease yields due to higher incidents of storms, which would cause flooded farmland and severe soil erosion. (Li et al., 2011) In central East Asia wheat production will struggle with increasing drought conditions as well as in Northern East Asia. (ADB, 2009)
Of the 536 million ha of agricultural lands in Asia, soils on 206 million ha have been severely degraded. (ADB, 2009) Soils need to undergo thousands of years of development before being suitable for agricultural production therefore once soils are degraded it is as if they will never be fertile again. (Scherr, 1999) Agro-ecological zone assessments conducted in Asia found that “28% of soils have suffered severe fertility constraints and 11% are affected by limitations resulting from salinity, sodicity or gypsum constraints” (ADB, 2009) Of the suitable arable land 90% has already been cultivated leaving no room for expansion. (ADB, 2009) With changing climate the threat of increasing soil erosion from extreme weather events looms as well as decreasing soil moisture due to increasing periods of drought and rising temperatures.
As a result of increasing GHG, increased temperatures will lead to complex changes including vegetation, ocean circulation, sea surface temperatures, global atmosphere compositions which will lead to unpredictable rates of precipitation (Salinger, et al., 2005, Borron, 2006) Today agriculture is the largest consumer of water in the world and rice alone requires 2,000 litters of rice to produce one kilogram of rice. (FAO, 2004) In Southeast Asia where most crop production is in rain-fed semi-arid and sub humid regions, the threat of increasing drought conditions will be of serious concern. (Li et al., 2011) Those in Southeast Asia who are heavily reliant upon monsoonal rainfall which will make them to be most vulnerable to unpredictable weather patterns this will lead to a massive decrease in yield. (Li et al, 2011)
One of the most concerning scenarios associated with changing climates is that the threat of infectious disease. (Schmidhuber & Tubiello, 2007) With increasing temperatures and increasing populations this leads to higher susceptibility of diseases spreading which could cause catastrophic consequences for humans across the globe. Disease susceptibility will impact all forms of life from crops to humans. With increasing unpredictability of climate, human health is expected to decrease as well as plant health. Farmers can expect to have lower yields, which will equate to a decrease in food availability and security for the region.
Combating food insecurity in the wake of climate change and increasing populations will not be an easy feat. East Asia holds the highest population in the world with more than 64.4% of the population in Asia, around 2.2 billion people, relying on agriculture for their livelihoods. (ADB, 2009) Despite technological advancement, most of the rice grown in Asia is still produced on small family-based farms with an average size varying from 0.5 to 4.0 ha which is equivalent to 1.25 to 10 acres. (Hossain et al., 1995) These small-scale farmers living in rural areas who are practicing sustainable agriculture will be the most vulnerable in the face of climate change.
To accommodate growing populations over the last couple decades, reckless land degradation has been the chosen answer. With the increase in urbanization, many valuable ecosystems have been lost. For example, a common practice to create more agricultural land has been to drain wetlands and fill them in with soil. (Atapattu, 2009) This will not be a viable option in the future and coming up with new sustainable solutions is extremely important and vital to the region’s existence.
Achieving food security within East Asia will take collaboration of all people starting with individual farmers. Innovative adaptation strategies suggest reverting back to agricultural practices used before the “green revolution” and shifting to more sustainable small-scale production like many of those living in rural areas. In edition to this movement it is suggested that food insecurity can be solved through organic farming. Organic farming is a “holistic production management system, which promotes and enhances agro-ecosystems health including biodiversity, biological cycles, and soil biological activity” (Borron, 2006) while encompassing soil and water conservation techniques.
In order for East Asia to be resilient in the face of climate change it will take the cooperation of all stakeholders within the region and serious modifications to current agricultural practices. For example, in China they are expediting laws and regulations that will decrease GHG by requiring the use alternative energy such as wind, solar, geothermal or tide energy for production. (Su et al., 2009) A shifting of values is in order to face the future challenge of growing populations and hunger. If East Asia can start valuing long-term sustainable agricultural that will provide for the entire region instead of short-term profits from industrialized agricultural exports they will be able to better provide for both present and future generations.
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